World Cup Semifinals 2026: Eight Teams, Stars and Who Gets Through
Lionel Messi arrives at the World Cup 2026 semifinals with eight goals, the all-time World Cup scoring record already in his pocket, and one more title standing between him and back-to-back championships for Argentina, something no nation has managed since Brazil in 1962. That is the individual story that towers over this stage, though Kylian Mbappe is breathing down his neck on seven goals and has already become the all-time World Cup knockout-stage top scorer for France. Two semifinal matches, played three days apart, will decide who advances to the final at MetLife Stadium.
Match M101 kicks off on 14 July at 2:00 p.m. local time (UTC-5) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, FIFA tournament name Dallas, with the winner of France vs Morocco meeting the winner of Spain vs Belgium. Match M102 follows on 15 July at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the winner of Norway vs England faces the winner of Argentina vs Switzerland. Both ties are single elimination: if level after 90 minutes, extra time of two 15-minute periods is played, followed by a penalty shootout if necessary.
The Eight Teams, Profiled
France (Kalshi tournament-winner probability: 34.1%) have been the most convincing side in the tournament. A perfect group stage produced ten goals scored against two conceded, and they have now scored 14 times across five matches. Mbappe drives everything: seven goals, all-time knockout-stage record, and a front four completed by Dembele, Barcola and Olise that opponents have found no answer for. The one concern is the absence through injury of Tchouameni, which reshapes the midfield for the quarterfinal against Morocco, itself a rematch of their 2022 semifinal. Opta gives France a 73.9% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 78%.
Argentina (18.8%) are the defending champions and Messi's vehicle for history. Five wins from five, yet the path has been far from smooth: a 3-2 after extra time against Cabo Verde, then a 3-2 comeback against Egypt after trailing 0-2. Messi's eight goals lead the Golden Boot race and confirm his status as the all-time World Cup top scorer. A second consecutive title would be the first back-to-back since Brazil 1962. Opta gives them a 69.1% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 74%.
Spain (18.7%) have not conceded a single goal in five matches, the cleanest defensive record remaining in the tournament. Their most dramatic moment came through substitute Merino, whose goal in the 90th minute plus one beat Portugal 1-0 and sent Spain to their first quarterfinal since their 2010 title. The combination of defensive solidity and clinical moments makes them the most awkward draw in the bottom half of the bracket. Opta gives them a 69.7% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket sits at 75%.
England (15.6%) produced the defining image of the round of 16 when Jude Bellingham scored twice at the Azteca to beat Mexico 3-2 with ten men after Quansah was sent off. Quansah's suspension carries into the quarterfinal against Norway, thinning the defensive options. Harry Kane is on six goals and closing on the Golden Boot, while Jordan Pickford has been outstanding between the sticks. Opta gives England a 62.4% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 66%.
Norway (6.0%) are the tournament's most disruptive force. They knocked out Brazil 2-1, with Erling Haaland scoring in the 79th and 90th minutes, and Haaland has now scored in every single World Cup match he has played. This is Norway's first-ever quarterfinal, and the weight of that history sits lightly on a squad that seems to relish the underdog role. Opta gives them a 37.7% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 35%.
Morocco (3.1%) beat Canada 3-0 in the round of 16 with Ounahi scoring twice, and earlier eliminated the Netherlands on penalties, with Bounou producing the decisive save. Brahim Diaz has four assists in this tournament, an African record at a single World Cup. Their quarterfinal against France is a direct rematch of the 2022 semifinal, which adds a particular edge to the tie. Opta gives them a 26.1% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 23%.
Belgium (2.6%) announced themselves with a 4-1 demolition of the United States, Charles De Ketelaere contributing two goals and an assist in a performance that recalled the best of their 2018 generation. It is their first quarterfinal since that bronze-medal run eight years ago, and De Ketelaere's form gives them a genuine match-winner to carry into the last eight. Opta gives them a 30.3% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 25%.
Switzerland (2.3%) ground out a 0-0 draw with Colombia before winning 4-3 on penalties, goalkeeper Yann Kobel saving one spot kick and Vargas converting the winner. It is their first quarterfinal since 1954 and a reminder that tournament football rewards composure as much as brilliance. Opta gives them a 30.9% chance of reaching the semifinals; Polymarket has them at 26%.
Star Watch
The Golden Boot race is a three-way story with Messi at eight goals, Mbappe at seven and Kane at six. Messi leads, but Mbappe has the most dangerous remaining path if France continue their scoring form, and Kane has shown he can deliver from the penalty spot as well as open play. The arithmetic is simple: two more matches for the semifinalists, and any of the three could finish top.
Haaland occupies a category of his own. He has scored in every World Cup match he has appeared in, and his two-goal performance to eliminate Brazil confirmed that this is not a streak built against weak opposition. If Norway continue, the question is not whether he scores but how many.
The assist record belongs to Brahim Diaz, whose four assists set an African record for a single World Cup tournament. His combination play with Morocco's forwards has been the creative engine behind their run. In goal, three keepers have defined this tournament: Bounou's penalty save against the Netherlands, Kobel's decisive stop against Colombia, and Pickford's consistent excellence for England. All three arrive at the quarterfinals as potential match-winners before a ball is kicked from the spot.
Among the super-subs, Merino's 90th-minute-plus-one goal to beat Portugal may be the most important single contribution from the bench at this tournament. Manzambi has also provided impact from the bench, adding another dimension to their side's attacking options late in matches.
World Cup Semifinal Odds
The consensus probabilities, averaging Opta's supercomputer from 8 July and Polymarket prices from 7 July, make France vs Spain the most likely semifinal pairing at 54.7%. That would put Mbappe against Spain's unbeaten defense, a collision between the tournament's top scorer and the only side yet to concede. The approximate decimal equivalent of France's tournament-winner probability on Kalshi is around 2.93, reflecting the market's clear view of their status as frontrunners.
England vs Argentina comes in at 45.7% consensus probability, which would deliver the headlining individual duel: Messi chasing history against Bellingham and Kane. Norway vs Argentina sits at 25.9%, a lower probability but a fixture that would put Haaland's streak against Messi's record in the same semifinal. France vs Belgium is at 20.9%, and England vs Switzerland at 18.2% rounds out the five most likely pairings. The Opta supercomputer's live feed gives France the highest individual semifinal probability at 73.9%, making them the most likely team to be present regardless of which bracket materializes.
World Cup Semifinal Predictions
France vs Spain (54.7%)
France's Fantastic Four attack against the only defense in the tournament that has not conceded. Mbappe against a backline that has kept five consecutive clean sheets is the central tension: France's 14 goals in five matches says the streak ends, Spain's defensive discipline says otherwise. The star matchup is Mbappe versus the collective, and France's firepower across Dembele, Barcola and Olise makes them impossible to plan against with a single defensive scheme. France advance: 54.7% consensus probability.
England vs Argentina (45.7%)
Messi at eight goals and chasing a back-to-back title against an England side that produced one of the tournament's great individual performances from Bellingham at the Azteca. Kane's six goals give England a genuine goal threat, and Pickford's form gives them a safety net in a shootout. Argentina's two consecutive 3-2 escapes suggest vulnerability at the back that England's attack could exploit. Messi's record chase makes Argentina narrow favorites, but this is the least predictable tie of the five. Argentina advance: 45.7% consensus probability.
Norway vs Argentina (25.9%)
The tournament's most compelling underdog story against its most storied individual. Haaland has scored in every match; Messi has eight goals and a title defense. Norway beat Brazil on the same formula: absorb, transition, and let Haaland finish. Argentina's habit of conceding first, twice in a row, suggests Norway's approach could work again. But Messi's record in tight knockout matches is the defining factor here. Argentina advance: 25.9% consensus probability.
France vs Belgium (20.9%)
De Ketelaere's two-goal, one-assist performance against the USA was the best individual display from any Belgian in years, but France's depth across all four attacking positions makes them the heavier side by some distance. Mbappe at seven goals against a Belgium defense that conceded four to the hosts is a mismatch on paper. France advance: 20.9% consensus probability.
England vs Switzerland (18.2%)
Kobel's penalty heroics gave Switzerland their quarterfinal place, and their composure under pressure is genuine. But England have Kane at six goals, Bellingham's momentum from the Azteca, and Pickford as an equally capable shootout keeper. If it reaches penalties, either side can win it; in open play, England's individual quality edges it. England advance: 18.2% consensus probability.
Semifinal Betting Angles
The Golden Boot race offers the clearest value in individual markets. Messi leads at eight goals, Mbappe trails by one at seven, and Kane sits at six. Each has two potential matches remaining, and Mbappe's platform in a France attack that has scored 14 goals in five games makes him the most likely overtaker. Backing Mbappe to outscore Messi across the semifinal and final is supported by France's volume of chances created throughout the tournament.
Spain's clean-sheet record across five matches is the hardest statistical fact in the tournament for match betting purposes. Five consecutive shutouts means any opponent faces a side that has conceded nothing, and the under market or a Spain clean sheet line reflects genuine evidence rather than optimism. The caveat is that Spain have not yet faced an attack of France's caliber, where four different forwards can hurt a defense in different ways.
Penalty shootout angles are well-supported by the data. Kobel saved a spot kick against Colombia and was decisive in Switzerland's quarterfinal win; Bounou's save eliminated the Netherlands. Pickford has been outstanding throughout. If any of those three sides reach a shootout, their keeper's record in this tournament is a legitimate basis for a bet rather than a general assumption. Norway's quarterfinal odds of 4.30 against England, per the supplied 1X2 lines, imply an approximate 23% win probability, which reflects their underdog status while acknowledging that Haaland's streak makes them dangerous at any price.
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FAQ
Which teams are in the World Cup semifinal matches?
The four semifinalists are the winners of the four quarterfinals played on 9, 10 and 11 July. Semifinal M101 on 14 July at AT&T Stadium in Dallas pairs the winner of France vs Morocco with the winner of Spain vs Belgium. Semifinal M102 on 15 July at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta pairs the winner of Norway vs England with the winner of Argentina vs Switzerland. The two winners advance to the final at MetLife Stadium.
Who leads the Golden Boot at the semifinal stage?
Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot with eight goals, making him the all-time World Cup top scorer. Kylian Mbappe is second with seven goals and has become the all-time World Cup knockout-stage top scorer. Harry Kane is third with six goals. Erling Haaland has scored in every World Cup match he has played, though his total is not specified beyond his two-goal performance against Brazil.
Which underdog could reach the final from the World Cup 2026 semifinals?
Norway are the most credible underdog story remaining. Their Kalshi tournament-winner probability stands at 6.0%, and they have already eliminated Brazil, with Haaland scoring twice. Opta gives them a 37.7% chance of reaching the semifinals, and if they get through their quarterfinal against England, a France vs Norway final carries a 7.5% consensus pairing probability, the fifth most likely final combination in the data. Morocco at 3.1% and Belgium at 2.6% are longer shots but both have demonstrated the capacity to eliminate favored opponents.